Research

I currently work on experiments with Generative AI for low-income entrepreneurs in Africa. I also study fintech, AI, entrepreneurship, and the energy crisis in South Africa. Previously, I led randomized trials studying ultra-poor solar entrepreneurs in rural East Africa.  

Working Papers

The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance. (2024) With N Otis, S Delecourt, D Holtz, R Koning.

Abstract: There is a growing belief that scalable and low-cost AI assistance can improve firm decision-making and economic performance. However, running a business involves a myriad of open-ended problems, making it hard to generalize from recent studies showing that generative AI improves performance on well-defined writing tasks. In our field experiment with 640 Kenyan entrepreneurs, we assessed the impact of AI-generated advice on small business revenues and profits. Participants were randomly assigned to a control group that received a standard business guide or to a treatment group that received a GPT-4-powered AI business mentor via WhatsApp. We are unable to reject the null hypothesis that generative AI access has no impact, but are able to rule out the large effect sizes reported by other studies of generative AI's economic impact. Our overall null result masks treatment effect heterogeneity with respect to the baseline business performance of the entrepreneur: our point estimates suggest that high performers benefited by just over 15% from AI advice, whereas low performers did about 8% worse with AI assistance. Exploratory analysis of WhatsApp interaction logs shows that both groups sought the AI mentor's advice, but that low performers did worse because they sought help on more challenging business tasks. Our findings highlight the potential and limitations of generative AI to enable entrepreneurs across the globe.

First Place Winner, Wharton People Analytics White Paper Competition

Featured VoxDev (Podcast)

Featured News Digital Data Design (D^3) Institute at Harvard. 

Featured News UC Berkeley Haas.

Revenue-Based Financing. (2023) With D Russel, C Shi. 

Abstract: We use data from a major South African payment processor to study how digital payments mitigate asymmetric information challenges in small business "revenue-based financing" contracts, which tie repayment schedules to future revenue. Eight months post-financing, digital payments through the processor are 15% lower for takers than observably similar non-takers. We show this "gap" can be decomposed into three components: moral hazard from revenue hiding, adverse selection, and the causal effect of financing for takers. Two natural experiments suggest that takers shift more revenue off the platform when competition increases (moral hazard), and that financiers can increase repayment by waiting longer before extending offers (adverse selection). With estimates from both experiments, we bound the gap components, finding substantial adverse selection, but also positive short-run causal effects. Our results suggest digital payment platforms with "sticky" features can alleviate classic risk-sharing frictions by imposing hiding costs and limiting hidden information.

Academic Publications

Design of Off-Grid Lighting Business Models to Serve the Poor: Field Experiments and Structural Analysis (2024). Management Science. Vol. 70, No. 5, May 2024. With BS Uppari, S Netessine, I Popescu. Published Version. SSRN Working Paper.

Abstract: A significant proportion of the world’s population has no access to grid-based electricity and so relies on off-grid lighting solutions. Rechargeable lamp technology is gaining popularity as an alternative off-grid lighting model in developing countries. In this paper, we explore consumer behavior and the operational inefficiencies that result under this model. Specifically, we are interested in (i) measuring the impact of inconvenience (of traveling to recharge the lamp) along with the impact of liquidity constraints (because of poverty) on lamp usage and (ii) evaluating the efficacy of strategies that address these factors. We build a structural model of consumers’ recharge decisions that incorporates several operational features of the low-income regions. We conducted large-scale field experiments in Rwanda in partnership with a local rechargeable lamp operator and use the resultant data to estimate and test our model. We find that the complete removal of inconvenience and liquidity constraints from the current business model results in 73% and 126% increases in both recharges and revenue, thereby suggesting that these constraints are major sources of inefficiency. By implementing simple operations-based strategies—such as starting more recharge centers, visiting consumers periodically to collect their lamps for recharge, and allowing consumers to partially recharge their lamps and pay flexibly for the recharge—more than half the benefit of completely eliminating the inefficiencies can be attained. By contrast, the price- and capacity-based strategies that vary the economic variables (i.e., the amount paid per recharge and the amount of light obtained in return) but not the operational model perform far worse than the aforementioned strategies. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the importance of managing operations effectively even in markets with cash-constrained consumers, in which firms may have a natural tendency to focus more on reducing prices.

Winner INFORMS Public Sector Operations Research (PSOR) Best Paper Award

Winner INFORMS Technology, Innovation Management, and Entrepreneurship (TIMES) Best Working Paper Award 

Finalist POMS Applied Research Challenge Award

Finalist INFORMS Decision Analysis Practice Award

Featured in Amazon Science

Competition and Gender in the Lab vs Field: Experiments from off-grid Renewable Energy Entrepreneurs in Rural Rwanda (2021). Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics. Volume 91, April 2021. With R Klege, M Visser, M Barron. 

Gender and Entrepreneurship in the Renewable Energy Sector of Rwanda. (2020). Institute of Development Studies Bulletin. Vol. 51 No.1. With M Barron, M Visser, R Klege, A Elam, A Shankar.

Work in Progress

Exogenous Shocks, Digital Payments, and Firm Strategy.

Fintech and Personalized AI Agents for Firm Growth.

Practitioner Publications

A Smarter Way to Design Business Strategies to Serve the Poor. (2023). INSEAD Knowledge. With BS Uppari, S Netessine, I Popescu. 

Providing off-grid light to poor communities. (2022). ORMS Today. With BS Uppari, S Netessine, I Popescu. 

Entrepreneurs Bringing Light To Rural Rwanda. (2022). Wharton Mack Institute for Innovation Management. With BS Uppari, S Netessine, I Popescu.